Guidelines for Selecting Travel Forecasting Methods and Techniques

National Academies - TRB: NCHRP 08-94

There is an ever-evolving set of methods and tools to choose from when developing travel forecasting models to inform planning and policy decisions. However, it is not reasonable or efficient to assume all agencies have the resources and expertise to continually evaluate, select, and defend the appropriate methods and tools for their particular planning and policy decisions.

RSG is currently leading a National Highway Cooperative Research Program (NCHRP) study to develop comprehensive guidelines for travel forecasting practitioners to scope model improvements. More specifically, the products of this research will be:
(1) a decision-support tool that identifies specific methods for answering transportation planning and policy questions, and
(2) a written guidance document that identifies applicable methods and tools, along with the challenges and limitations of each.

The success of these products will be based on usage and feedback from users (e.g., did the tools help to answer planning or policy questions?, reduce the resources needed?, provide benefits for analytics in terms of added precision, sensitivity, or credibility?).

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