Future Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles and Their Impact on the Number of Vehicles in Operation

Leading Auto Manufacturer

RSG is working with a top-five global automaker to quantify shared and private autonomous vehicle adoption rates over the next 10 to 15 years. All the major auto manufacturers understand that new mobility services and technologies are changing consumers’ vehicle purchase and travel patterns. Within the next decade, autonomous vehicles will likely provide consumers with new types of vehicle purchase and travel options, but consumer adoption will be the major driver in how quickly the vehicles make it into production and onto the roads.

To quantify these changes, RSG is working with automakers to develop a needs-based segmentation related to autonomous vehicle needs and attitudes. Consumer segments’ reactions to future autonomous scenarios can then be quantified. This is important since most automakers plan many years ahead and need to know how these changes may affect vehicle sales. Importantly, RSG is helping automakers understand whether consumers who purchase future autonomous vehicles would maintain, decrease, or increase their number of household vehicles. The work uses two interrelated models: one to evaluate likely vehicle choices in the future and another to quantify how consumers would replace (or add to) existing vehicles in favor of autonomous vehicles.