b'FORECASTINGE valuating complex systems to forecast future conditions has never been simple, but recent TOOLS IN A TIMEdisruptive technological changes such as automated, connected, electric, and shared (ACES) OF UNCERTAINTYmobility options have added additional uncertainty to future forecasts. AND DISRUPTION In addition to technology, outside shocks to the system such as the COVID-19 pandemic have prompted actions unprecedented in modern times. How strategic models can helpThese actions, and the changes in behavior brought practitioners plan for change about by the public and private sector efforts to flatten the curve, will have short- and long-term effects on travel behavior.Maren Outwater, PEJonathan Slason, PE Scenario planning tools can help practitioners anticipate and respond to demographic, policy, and travel changes in regions of interest. Responding to changes that have been underway for some time, as well as emerging changes like those brought about by the spread of COVID-19, requires planning tools that can help practitioners analyze the future based on different assumptions. Ideally, these tools should provide a framework for the evaluation of a range of risk and risk responses. Among those in use, strategic models combine speed and detail, both of which are essential amid changing technological and travel conditions. Strategic models offer practitioners at state, regional, or local levels robust and cost-effective planning capabilities that are normally inaccessible or only achievable with significant resources and expertise.Tools of the TradeOver time, scenario planning has grown in usefulness and capability. Scenarios can be developed and analyzed for long-range plans and to understand near-term strategic choices. The recent increase in the availability of data, and the computational power required to analyze these data, has bolstered scenario plannings exploratory analysis capabilities.'