Market Research and Forecasting for Florida’s Road Pricing Projects

Florida Department of Transportation / Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise

Florida has grown significantly over the past several decades and has been a pioneer in the use of road pricing (tolls) to help pay for the transportation infrastructure necessary to support that growth. RSG has worked with Florida DOT’s central office, its regional districts, and through its Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise for more than 20 years. This work has included market research and statistical modeling to support the development of Florida’s electronic toll payment system, and traffic and revenue forecasting for several major toll roads. RSG has worked in a partnership with the agencies and their consultants to develop and apply new, innovative approaches to provide more reliable forecasts of the effects of these road pricing projects.

Most recently, RSG’s work has focused on market research and modeling to support evaluation of Florida’s numerous managed lanes projects. These projects add new tolled lanes to existing highways, with the tolls varying by time-of-day in order to ensure that acceptable service levels are maintained throughout the day and throughout the facility’s design life. RSG has developed a variety of analysis tools to reflect the dynamic natures of the pricing and performance of these facilities. Among these is a macroscopic simulation model that is used to estimate the equilibrium price levels corresponding to a selected pricing policy and resulting traffic flows throughout the day. In addition, RSG developed an integrated application that provides a comprehensive analysis of the revenue-related risks associated with any type of road pricing project, including managed lanes.

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